Is the gold & silver breakout failing, or just consolidating for the next leg of the current secular bull market? How impactful with the Chinese Yuan addition to the SDR be to global US Dollar holdings? How much gold do the US vs. China hold, and how will the answer affect our future? How does investing in gold miners perform vs. physical precious metals in a bull or bear market? What can the ordinary person do to reduce risk and profit at the same time? Silver guru David Morgan returns to Reluctant Preppers to give you the answer s you need to be aware and prepared now!
Morgan Report founder David Morgan reassures investors that, in his opinion, we’re in a silver bull market and, despite the recent weakness, that bull market is still intact. He also offers up his outlook for the silver and gold price by year end, saying the ‘smart money’ has already moved into the precious metals space.
Analyst, author and speaker David Morgan was interviewed by INN CEO, Nick Smith, about the impact of the United States presidential election of 2016 on the price of gold and silver. In the interview, Morgan also detailed his outlook for the precious metals sector as well as copper in 2017.
On Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton, Morgan said, “It doesn’t really matter [which] candidate gets the presidency in the United States. The economic and financial conditions are entrenched so deep, and so far, and so wide that we have a precious metals bull market. That doesn’t mean there won’t be some short-term iterations, as we already experienced.”
Indeed, gold surged nearly 5 percent on the night of the US elections, and had its biggest single-day gain since June. Mere hours after – when Trump took to the stage for his victory speech – the price of gold plunged to $1,302.42.
“We had a huge percentage increase in gold that was basically washed away within a matter of hours. So that is a precursor, I think, to going back to the fundamentals. And the fundamentals are, there is a systemic problem, worldwide, based on a lie that you can print wealth. It’s been experienced through all the market places.” says Morgan. He adds that “To preserve your financial health, you will need the precious metals at some point in your life.”
Morgan’s outlook for 2017 is positive. However, When asked about the steady increase in gold and silver prices, he said “I am more favourable to a longer consolidation period but 2017 will definitely see a lift throughout the year.”
He is cautiously optimistic; when asked about the continued rise in the price of precious metals, here’s what had to say “I was asked recently if I thought that the peak of the precious metals would be on the four-year presidency of Trump, and I said no.”
However, he does see a higher price for precious metals in 2017 as compared to 2016.
Morgan suggests that investors should diversify if they are leaning towards the precious metals, and says “and then that portion of your portfolio, which I then recommend 10 maybe 20 percent if you are a full-fledged gold or silver bull.”
China will be hosting the G20 Meeting for the first time in China. And I think they will be running the meeting pretty much. And at the same time, at the end of the month, I think it's the 30th of September, the yuan will be weighted at about, I think it's 10% of the SDR, Special Drawing Rights. So the international currency system run by the IMF, which is really run by the United States and International Monetary Fund, will be embracing the yuan as part of the SDR. And also, you will see a lot of settlement that will take place outside the U.S. dollar.
For example, petroleum historically has been settled in U.S. dollars only, and this is caused a great deal of the banking system throughout the globe to hold dollars so they could make settlements, because everybody buys oil. And now, you're going to see settlement directly in yuan, which means that this is going to put downward pressure on the dollar, which could be a reason to raise interesting rates. This thing about the economy's great, we need to raise interest rates like we used to have back ten, twenty years ago, is preposterous. Anyone who takes just a cursory look at the real numbers and understands what's really going on with shows like yours, mine, and many, many others, knows that there's no way that the recovery has really ever taken place in any substantial way since the 2008 financial crisis. Sure, there's been pockets here and there, but the overall economic picture's really just gone sideways or gotten worse.
However, if there’s pressure on the dollar, they could use that meme, that idea, that propaganda, that, "Oh, look at the unemployment. Look at how good we're doing," and this type of nonsense, "Well jeez, we really have to raise interest rates," when actually the reality is that because there is a further weakening of the dollar and there's negative interest rates throughout the bond market on sovereign debt, but not in the U.S. yet, that it could happen. I'm not saying it will happen, but my thinking is a little different than almost anybody that's in my peer group on this matter, Mike. Again, I could be wrong, I could be right, but I certainly want to voice it because I want to get people to think, and the only way to keep the dollar strong, let's say "strong", would be that it's got a positive rate of return when all these other sovereign nations with the euro, et cetera, have negative rates, there’s going to be a move for people to hold dollars.
And because China's coming into the fore, there's a move to not want to hold dollars, so you've got these two forces, sort of bullish the dollar and bearish the dollar. Very interesting times. Lots is happening, and I want to make one more comment and that is, as much as China has taken on the gold market in fiscal form for many, many years and built their reserves probably far higher than what the official report, I do not believe that China is ready to pull the gold card yet. They are just now entering into the global currency system in a meaningful way. They're very patient and I think they're more willing just to continue with this paper paradigm. They certainly caught the Keynesian disease years ago that have done the money printing to build out their infrastructure and to certainly boost their economic picture, which is of course distorted at this point just like everywhere else that's based on the Keynesian model. But nonetheless, I don't think they're ready to switch horses to a gold-backed yuan or anything like that any time in the very near future.
There's a lot of things happening this month, as we'll talk about later. The August low is habitually seasonality-wise very accurate for gold. You usually get the lowest price in gold in August. We're doing this in the 1st of September, and September is usually a rebound month, but the seasonalities haven't worked very well in the metals markets for quite some time, so I don't put as much credence in them as I used to. However, in the end of the year, you've got a rise in the metals, and we haven't seen that in a while either. I'm just going to let the market dictate, but here's what I'll say. The main support on the silver price is around the $17.50 to 17.60 level, so we might see another drop, and I really think that that level, another dollar down, is about as far as these guys are going to be able to push it down.
On the gold side, it's holding above $1,300 which has fairly good support. Not really strong support, because time-wise, it hasn't been above that level for a long time during this rally of the last six months. So I believe we're going to see a huge effort to push gold below the $1,300 level, and we have to just see how it reacts, if it rebounds quickly or not. And of course, more important than that, pretty much at the volume that takes place. In other words, if that causes a large selloff and the algorithms start to move with the shorts and the longs decide to throw in the towel and starts a waterfall decline, then of course, I'll do an update for The Morgan Report members, show that to them. Right now, it's too hard to call that. I don't see that. In fact, my suspicion is that that's not going to happen. In other words, they'll push it down below $1,300, but it will pop back up fairly quickly. So it's very interesting to watch the metals this year.
In any market, even in a non-manipulated market, which there is probably none. The stock market, bond market, metals markets, futures markets, options… just about everything out there is geared and leveraged and pretty much manipulated by the trading algorithms, and other means, but regardless of that, all markets move up and down. Nothing goes straight up or straight down, and so there are periods where there's profit-taking, there's periods where there's consolidation, that type of thing. So regardless of manipulated or not, all markets ebb and flow.
So the metals markets are no different in that aspect. What we saw in the silver market was over the last two months' time frame, we peaked out in the spot month around the $20.50 area a couple times, and now we've dropped as far as about $18.50, so we've had about a $2 drop over the last couple of months. Specifically, the most recent drop's really over a one month period. I want to be correct on that.
The idea that I've had is similar to many others, and we're kind of overdue for correction as you stated, Mike. So this is actually a healthy thing. The metals stocks certainly have leveraged both directions, so anybody that's invested in the resource sector, particularly gold and silver stocks, is going to see a multiple percentage-wise on the drop. And some of these stocks actually gave us a clue that the consolidation or the correction was coming, because some of these sold off before the metals actually had started to sell off. What's interesting, Mike, is that the selloff, even though it's been a fairly good drop, $2 on a $20 commodity, you're looking at about 12% or so, hasn't dropped the commitment of traders… or the open interest, I should say, on the commitment of traders… very much, which means that the bulls and bears are still pretty equal. There's still a very strongly held commitments to the silver and gold paper paradigm that futures markets more than I would've seen in a very, very long time for this kind of a price drop.
So let me restate that. The $2 drop in silver and a correspondingly percentage-wise drop in gold, normally, you would see a pretty good sell off in the open interest. In other words, the shorts would be winning the battle. That is not what I'm seeing at this point in time. We could see something different after the Labor Day holiday. I'm not sure, but right now, these metals for the whole year, and even during this correction, are acting extremely strong.
Our long-term friend and silver expert David is back to discuss first the federal reserve's decision not to raise rates (of course) and what this means for the world economy, future of the dying US Dollar and definitely gold & silver physical and mining shares. There's definitely some big events this year like the Chinese yuan into the IMF SDR that can shake things up BIG!
Clif High's web bot project has been long been predicting that silver and gold would skyrocket higher as the US Dollar loses its dominion as the world's reserve currency. David Morgan is interviewed and explains what he sees coming.