Wednesday, November 19, 2014

The Fundamentals of Owning Precious Metals Have Not Changed

People need to keep in mind that prices go up and down in all markets. Second, know that the fundamentals of owning precious metals have not changed. Third, remember why they bought the metal in the first place. And lastly, ensure that they are diversified properly, meaning they need to own the right amount of physical metal for their age and objectives. We don't advocate 100% or even 80% allocation to precious metals. But we want the money investors to put into the sector to be profitable, and that is why we specialize in sharing information about this sector.

A couple of years ago when silver prices had similarly dropped before bouncing up again, I talked at the Silver Summit about being grateful that I even have a portfolio to worry about. I shared some statistics on how the average American lives compared to the average citizen of the world. It was a reminder to myself and the audience that sometimes we get too focused on the monetary aspects of our lives.

Money is important, but it needs to be put in the proper place. There is more to life than how much money you can make. Nature preaches balance and when things get out of balance, it has a way of bringing them back into equilibrium. This is most evident in the natural resource sector. We're acting as if the earth is income rather than capital. The result is that we are using up our base capital in the form of forests and water and metal and not replacing them. That is unsustainable. I'm afraid we are going to pay a high price for that. We need to live within our means rather than getting all we can. It's more about what you can contribute, maintain and sustain than who has the most toys.

- Source, David Morgan via Silver Investors

Sunday, November 16, 2014

There Are Few Pure Silver Plays

The reality is that there are actually very few pure silver operations. As much as 70% of the silver produced is an offtake of mining for base metals. These producers really don't give a hoot about the price of silver. As long as they're making money in copper, lead and zinc, they don't pay attention to the silver price. They will keep producing no matter how low the silver price goes.

Even primary silver producers are reluctant to turn off the lights temporarily when they are working at a loss. I figure the average all-in sustaining cost per ounce, including taxes, is $23/oz. That makes selling for $17/oz unsustainable. But in the long run, operating minimally at a loss for a few months actually makes more sense than halting production. There are many reasons. Customer and employee contracts would result in big fines if not fulfilled in some cases. Also, keeping the wheels turning is important because mines deteriorate rapidly. A lot of them have to be dewatered, monitored for structural integrity and generally maintained. It actually might cost more to shut down and restart later than run it at a loss for a year as an example.

- David Morgan via Investor Ideas

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Savvy Buyers Will Start Accumulating Silver Again

We go with the market, which right now is saying $17 an ounce ($17/oz). The market cannot be argued with; the price is what it is. Regardless how it got there, manipulation or not, it is what it is. We use the 90-day average price because it's a standard in most industries and tends to smooth out the fluctuations. We might not agree with what the market is saying, but that's immaterial to our analysis. Our analysis has to be based on what the market is showing.

There are plenty of people, including money managers, who understand that this is a great price. They are just waiting for the right moment to bite. It usually starts with someone nibbling at the market and starting to accumulate. Or, someone sells aggressively to test the market for the absolute low. The Rothschilds were notorious for this type of market test and probably the first to do so in a manner that the public became aware of such tactics. They sold something they wanted to buy to force the price down so they could start accumulating at the very bottom. Either way, there will come a point where savvy buyers will start accumulating again.

- David Morgan via Investor Ideas


Monday, November 10, 2014

The Cure for Low Prices is Low Prices

There was a deficit of silver, which means fundamentally the price should be higher. But real prices are determined in the paper markets and the pressure there has been downward.

Additionally, the large physical silver holding companies--Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV:NAR), Central Fund of Canada (CEF) and the Zurich Cantonal Bank, the silver ETF--have not purchased any quantities of bullion in quite some time. That begs the question of why these big, traditionally bullish entities aren't stepping in at these low silver prices.

The other question investors are asking is, "When is this going to turn around?" They get depressed and say, "I can't win because the manipulators always win. It's pointless to be in this market." That mindset has taken hold of a lot of people who were once very bullish in the silver market.

This is all proof that we're very close to the bottom, if not at the bottom. When sentiment is this low, people become fearful. As Jim Dines says, the cure for low prices is low prices. It won't go on forever, even though it may seem that way now.

- David Morgan via Investors Ideas

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Generating Revenue and Heading Toward Potential Profitability


Ellis Martin and David Morgan discuss criteria for considering investment in an online video gaming startup that is generating revenue and heading toward potential profitability. If a company is trading at or near book value with possible strong upside, what else do we need to look for before owning the company?

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Cup Of Silver A Day Keeps The Doctor Away


Can silver cure Ebola? Tune in now to hear David Morgan’s thoughts on the uses of silver in medicine. Our five-year celebration continues and today it’s all about silver! Kitco News speaks with the silver guru to see how he sees the metal holding up these past 5 years. “The fundamentals are still probably better than ever really,” he tells Daniela Cambone. “When you stop and think about itof why you buy these metals, the reasons for buying them have not gone away.” Morgan also comments on the fact that 70% of the silver produced is an ‘offtake of mining for base metals’ and how he sees this affecting the supply fundamentals for the metal.

- Source, Kitco News

Monday, October 20, 2014

A Run to Silver and Gold Unlike Anything in History of Mankind

Silver guru, David Morgan, says forget about the manipulated price suppression of the yellow and white metals. It’s only a matter of time before the debt and derivative markets crash, catapulting precious metals prices exponentially higher. Morgan explains, “The bigger problem all exists in the debt markets, and the debt markets is where the problem is really. When that problem blows up, there’s going to be a run to gold unlike anything in the history of mankind. . . . The spillover into silver will be phenomenal, as well, because once it (debt markets) starts down, everyone that understands what’s going on, which will be very few, will be running to gold. They will try to get gold in any form that they can, and again, a huge spillover into the silver market. All of a sudden, even at the retail level, and at the wholesale level or commercial level, or the futures market or bar level—it’s over. A big ETF type or silver holding company will call up and say I want to buy $50 million of silver, or $150 million or $200 million, which is peanuts compared to the bond market. . . . The answer is going to be ‘we don’t have it.’ When that happens, it’s over.”

Morgan goes on to say, “These types of events are anomalies. . . . Few people see them coming, and with the silver price being so low the last three years, a lot of people who once believed us are going to say that these guys just can’t be right. The paper manipulators are going to keep prices under control forever, but they won’t. It will be an event that will be unlike anything we have seen.”

On the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, Morgan says, “John Exter’s upside down pyramid explains it very well. The derivative markets blow up, and you go down the pyramid of liquidity. The step above the run to gold is the U.S. dollar. Most people who are under educated about money think if you have physical dollars under your mattress, you are in the safest position you could possibly be in. If you have all of your savings in physical greenback, you don’t have to worry about a bank failure. That is the most important step until that doesn’t work. When that doesn’t work, faith in the dollar is lost or being lost, then where do you go? The answer is you go to money that has lasted for 5,000 years. So, to see the dollar have all this strength and look good, that’s just the step before you go to the last step, which is a run to gold. So, it (the strength of the dollar) doesn’t surprise me. It’s part of the process . . . and the run to the dollar is a precursor that is absolutely necessary before the next step down the pyramid. . . . This is the big picture, and I see how things narrow down and why precious metals are so important in today’s financial system.”

Morgan admits that his low of $18.17 silver did not hold and now thinks that the next “price spike” for silver “will be going lower.” Morgan explains, “This means we would get a spike down of maybe a dollar or something like that, from $18 to $17 or maybe even in the $16 range. I think that would be a spike that would be a dramatic drop. . . . It would be primarily a paper driven situation, and it would take place in a short duration.” Morgan goes on to predict, “Silver will be back in the $20 per ounce range, and the high $1,300 per ounce range for gold by the end of the year. That just presupposes that the system, as it is, continues, and the paper markets continue, and the derivative markets continue, and the powers that be are able to manage this price as they see fit with the derivatives. In the event that something happens, that whole scenario could go away very, very rapidly. That’s why you really want to be 6 months too early than 6 minutes too late.”

- Source, USA Watchdog

Friday, October 17, 2014

US Dollar is the Last Stop Before Gold & Silver Spike


On the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com, says, “John Exter’s upside down pyramid explains it very well. The derivative markets blow up and you go down the pyramid of liquidity. The step above the run to gold is the U.S. dollar. Most people who are under educated about money think if you have physical dollars under your mattress, you are in the safest position you could possibly be in. If you have all of your savings in physical greenback, you don’t have to worry about a bank failure. That is the most important step until that doesn’t work. When that doesn’t work, faith in the dollar is lost or being lost, then where do you go? The answer is you go to money that has lasted for 5,000 years. So, to see the dollar have all this strength and look good, that’s just the step before you go to the last step, which is a run to gold. So, it (the strength of the dollar) doesn’t surprise me. It’s part of the process . . . and the run to the dollar is a precursor that is absolutely necessary before the next step down the pyramid. . . . This is the big picture, and I see how things narrow down and why precious metals are so important in today’s financial system.”

- Source, USA Watchdog

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