David Morgan got more personal with his advice in October. He pointed out that he is grateful that he is part of the small minority of people on earth who have a portfolio to worry about. “Money is important, but it needs to be put in the proper place. There is more to life than how much money you can make. Nature preaches balance and when things get out of balance, it has a way of bringing them back into equilibrium. This is most evident in the natural resource sector. We’re acting as if the earth is income rather than capital. The result is that we are using up our base capital in the form of forests and water and metal and not replacing them. That is unsustainable. I’m afraid we are going to pay a high price for that. We need to live within our means rather than getting all we can. It’s more about what you can contribute, maintain and sustain than who has the most toys.”
- Source, Trefis
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
The Fundamentals of Owning Precious Metals Have Not Changed
People need to keep in mind that prices go up and down in all markets. Second, know that the fundamentals of owning precious metals have not changed. Third, remember why they bought the metal in the first place. And lastly, ensure that they are diversified properly, meaning they need to own the right amount of physical metal for their age and objectives. We don't advocate 100% or even 80% allocation to precious metals. But we want the money investors to put into the sector to be profitable, and that is why we specialize in sharing information about this sector.
A couple of years ago when silver prices had similarly dropped before bouncing up again, I talked at the Silver Summit about being grateful that I even have a portfolio to worry about. I shared some statistics on how the average American lives compared to the average citizen of the world. It was a reminder to myself and the audience that sometimes we get too focused on the monetary aspects of our lives.
Money is important, but it needs to be put in the proper place. There is more to life than how much money you can make. Nature preaches balance and when things get out of balance, it has a way of bringing them back into equilibrium. This is most evident in the natural resource sector. We're acting as if the earth is income rather than capital. The result is that we are using up our base capital in the form of forests and water and metal and not replacing them. That is unsustainable. I'm afraid we are going to pay a high price for that. We need to live within our means rather than getting all we can. It's more about what you can contribute, maintain and sustain than who has the most toys.
A couple of years ago when silver prices had similarly dropped before bouncing up again, I talked at the Silver Summit about being grateful that I even have a portfolio to worry about. I shared some statistics on how the average American lives compared to the average citizen of the world. It was a reminder to myself and the audience that sometimes we get too focused on the monetary aspects of our lives.
Money is important, but it needs to be put in the proper place. There is more to life than how much money you can make. Nature preaches balance and when things get out of balance, it has a way of bringing them back into equilibrium. This is most evident in the natural resource sector. We're acting as if the earth is income rather than capital. The result is that we are using up our base capital in the form of forests and water and metal and not replacing them. That is unsustainable. I'm afraid we are going to pay a high price for that. We need to live within our means rather than getting all we can. It's more about what you can contribute, maintain and sustain than who has the most toys.
- Source, David Morgan via Silver Investors
Sunday, November 16, 2014
There Are Few Pure Silver Plays
The reality is that there are actually very few pure silver operations. As much as 70% of the silver produced is an offtake of mining for base metals. These producers really don't give a hoot about the price of silver. As long as they're making money in copper, lead and zinc, they don't pay attention to the silver price. They will keep producing no matter how low the silver price goes.
Even primary silver producers are reluctant to turn off the lights temporarily when they are working at a loss. I figure the average all-in sustaining cost per ounce, including taxes, is $23/oz. That makes selling for $17/oz unsustainable. But in the long run, operating minimally at a loss for a few months actually makes more sense than halting production. There are many reasons. Customer and employee contracts would result in big fines if not fulfilled in some cases. Also, keeping the wheels turning is important because mines deteriorate rapidly. A lot of them have to be dewatered, monitored for structural integrity and generally maintained. It actually might cost more to shut down and restart later than run it at a loss for a year as an example.
Even primary silver producers are reluctant to turn off the lights temporarily when they are working at a loss. I figure the average all-in sustaining cost per ounce, including taxes, is $23/oz. That makes selling for $17/oz unsustainable. But in the long run, operating minimally at a loss for a few months actually makes more sense than halting production. There are many reasons. Customer and employee contracts would result in big fines if not fulfilled in some cases. Also, keeping the wheels turning is important because mines deteriorate rapidly. A lot of them have to be dewatered, monitored for structural integrity and generally maintained. It actually might cost more to shut down and restart later than run it at a loss for a year as an example.
- David Morgan via Investor Ideas
Thursday, November 13, 2014
Savvy Buyers Will Start Accumulating Silver Again
We go with the market, which right now is saying $17 an ounce ($17/oz). The market cannot be argued with; the price is what it is. Regardless how it got there, manipulation or not, it is what it is. We use the 90-day average price because it's a standard in most industries and tends to smooth out the fluctuations. We might not agree with what the market is saying, but that's immaterial to our analysis. Our analysis has to be based on what the market is showing.
There are plenty of people, including money managers, who understand that this is a great price. They are just waiting for the right moment to bite. It usually starts with someone nibbling at the market and starting to accumulate. Or, someone sells aggressively to test the market for the absolute low. The Rothschilds were notorious for this type of market test and probably the first to do so in a manner that the public became aware of such tactics. They sold something they wanted to buy to force the price down so they could start accumulating at the very bottom. Either way, there will come a point where savvy buyers will start accumulating again.
There are plenty of people, including money managers, who understand that this is a great price. They are just waiting for the right moment to bite. It usually starts with someone nibbling at the market and starting to accumulate. Or, someone sells aggressively to test the market for the absolute low. The Rothschilds were notorious for this type of market test and probably the first to do so in a manner that the public became aware of such tactics. They sold something they wanted to buy to force the price down so they could start accumulating at the very bottom. Either way, there will come a point where savvy buyers will start accumulating again.
- David Morgan via Investor Ideas
Monday, November 10, 2014
The Cure for Low Prices is Low Prices
There was a deficit of silver, which means fundamentally the price should be higher. But real prices are determined in the paper markets and the pressure there has been downward.
Additionally, the large physical silver holding companies--Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV:NAR), Central Fund of Canada (CEF) and the Zurich Cantonal Bank, the silver ETF--have not purchased any quantities of bullion in quite some time. That begs the question of why these big, traditionally bullish entities aren't stepping in at these low silver prices.
The other question investors are asking is, "When is this going to turn around?" They get depressed and say, "I can't win because the manipulators always win. It's pointless to be in this market." That mindset has taken hold of a lot of people who were once very bullish in the silver market.
This is all proof that we're very close to the bottom, if not at the bottom. When sentiment is this low, people become fearful. As Jim Dines says, the cure for low prices is low prices. It won't go on forever, even though it may seem that way now.
Additionally, the large physical silver holding companies--Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV:NAR), Central Fund of Canada (CEF) and the Zurich Cantonal Bank, the silver ETF--have not purchased any quantities of bullion in quite some time. That begs the question of why these big, traditionally bullish entities aren't stepping in at these low silver prices.
The other question investors are asking is, "When is this going to turn around?" They get depressed and say, "I can't win because the manipulators always win. It's pointless to be in this market." That mindset has taken hold of a lot of people who were once very bullish in the silver market.
This is all proof that we're very close to the bottom, if not at the bottom. When sentiment is this low, people become fearful. As Jim Dines says, the cure for low prices is low prices. It won't go on forever, even though it may seem that way now.
- David Morgan via Investors Ideas
Friday, November 7, 2014
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
Saturday, November 1, 2014
Generating Revenue and Heading Toward Potential Profitability
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
Cup Of Silver A Day Keeps The Doctor Away
- Source, Kitco News
Sunday, October 26, 2014
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Monday, October 20, 2014
A Run to Silver and Gold Unlike Anything in History of Mankind
Silver guru, David Morgan, says forget about the manipulated price suppression of the yellow and white metals. It’s only a matter of time before the debt and derivative markets crash, catapulting precious metals prices exponentially higher. Morgan explains, “The bigger problem all exists in the debt markets, and the debt markets is where the problem is really. When that problem blows up, there’s going to be a run to gold unlike anything in the history of mankind. . . . The spillover into silver will be phenomenal, as well, because once it (debt markets) starts down, everyone that understands what’s going on, which will be very few, will be running to gold. They will try to get gold in any form that they can, and again, a huge spillover into the silver market. All of a sudden, even at the retail level, and at the wholesale level or commercial level, or the futures market or bar level—it’s over. A big ETF type or silver holding company will call up and say I want to buy $50 million of silver, or $150 million or $200 million, which is peanuts compared to the bond market. . . . The answer is going to be ‘we don’t have it.’ When that happens, it’s over.”
Morgan goes on to say, “These types of events are anomalies. . . . Few people see them coming, and with the silver price being so low the last three years, a lot of people who once believed us are going to say that these guys just can’t be right. The paper manipulators are going to keep prices under control forever, but they won’t. It will be an event that will be unlike anything we have seen.”
On the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, Morgan says, “John Exter’s upside down pyramid explains it very well. The derivative markets blow up, and you go down the pyramid of liquidity. The step above the run to gold is the U.S. dollar. Most people who are under educated about money think if you have physical dollars under your mattress, you are in the safest position you could possibly be in. If you have all of your savings in physical greenback, you don’t have to worry about a bank failure. That is the most important step until that doesn’t work. When that doesn’t work, faith in the dollar is lost or being lost, then where do you go? The answer is you go to money that has lasted for 5,000 years. So, to see the dollar have all this strength and look good, that’s just the step before you go to the last step, which is a run to gold. So, it (the strength of the dollar) doesn’t surprise me. It’s part of the process . . . and the run to the dollar is a precursor that is absolutely necessary before the next step down the pyramid. . . . This is the big picture, and I see how things narrow down and why precious metals are so important in today’s financial system.”
Morgan admits that his low of $18.17 silver did not hold and now thinks that the next “price spike” for silver “will be going lower.” Morgan explains, “This means we would get a spike down of maybe a dollar or something like that, from $18 to $17 or maybe even in the $16 range. I think that would be a spike that would be a dramatic drop. . . . It would be primarily a paper driven situation, and it would take place in a short duration.” Morgan goes on to predict, “Silver will be back in the $20 per ounce range, and the high $1,300 per ounce range for gold by the end of the year. That just presupposes that the system, as it is, continues, and the paper markets continue, and the derivative markets continue, and the powers that be are able to manage this price as they see fit with the derivatives. In the event that something happens, that whole scenario could go away very, very rapidly. That’s why you really want to be 6 months too early than 6 minutes too late.”
Morgan goes on to say, “These types of events are anomalies. . . . Few people see them coming, and with the silver price being so low the last three years, a lot of people who once believed us are going to say that these guys just can’t be right. The paper manipulators are going to keep prices under control forever, but they won’t. It will be an event that will be unlike anything we have seen.”
On the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, Morgan says, “John Exter’s upside down pyramid explains it very well. The derivative markets blow up, and you go down the pyramid of liquidity. The step above the run to gold is the U.S. dollar. Most people who are under educated about money think if you have physical dollars under your mattress, you are in the safest position you could possibly be in. If you have all of your savings in physical greenback, you don’t have to worry about a bank failure. That is the most important step until that doesn’t work. When that doesn’t work, faith in the dollar is lost or being lost, then where do you go? The answer is you go to money that has lasted for 5,000 years. So, to see the dollar have all this strength and look good, that’s just the step before you go to the last step, which is a run to gold. So, it (the strength of the dollar) doesn’t surprise me. It’s part of the process . . . and the run to the dollar is a precursor that is absolutely necessary before the next step down the pyramid. . . . This is the big picture, and I see how things narrow down and why precious metals are so important in today’s financial system.”
Morgan admits that his low of $18.17 silver did not hold and now thinks that the next “price spike” for silver “will be going lower.” Morgan explains, “This means we would get a spike down of maybe a dollar or something like that, from $18 to $17 or maybe even in the $16 range. I think that would be a spike that would be a dramatic drop. . . . It would be primarily a paper driven situation, and it would take place in a short duration.” Morgan goes on to predict, “Silver will be back in the $20 per ounce range, and the high $1,300 per ounce range for gold by the end of the year. That just presupposes that the system, as it is, continues, and the paper markets continue, and the derivative markets continue, and the powers that be are able to manage this price as they see fit with the derivatives. In the event that something happens, that whole scenario could go away very, very rapidly. That’s why you really want to be 6 months too early than 6 minutes too late.”
- Source, USA Watchdog
Friday, October 17, 2014
US Dollar is the Last Stop Before Gold & Silver Spike
- Source, USA Watchdog
Monday, September 29, 2014
Gold Seek Radio Interviews Harry Dent and David Morgan
http://www.silver-investor.com/ and Harry S Dent Jr http://www.harrydent.com/
http://www.goldseek.com/ http://radio.goldseek.com/
Friday, September 26, 2014
Silver Summit, Metals Card, and Energy with David Morgan
Join us for over a half hour discussion on the last several decades of US policy and the unintended consequences of attempting to control economic and social policies.
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Palladium Prices Still White Hot
Saturday, September 20, 2014
David Morgan, Ross Clark, Louis James
Ross Clark: Gold-Silver ratio.
Louis James: Hi-Tech impacting Silver extraction.
Produced by http://www.HoweStreet.com
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Sunday, September 14, 2014
David Morgan Reveals Extraordinary Drivers in Silver
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Gold, Silver and the bottoming process for the sector
Sunday, August 17, 2014
Myths and Misinformation in the Silver Market
Thursday, August 14, 2014
The Difference Between Smart Buys And Gambling Buys
Monday, August 11, 2014
Deflationary Crash Or a Hyperinflationary Monetary Collapse?
Saturday, August 2, 2014
Myths In The Silver Market
Thursday, July 31, 2014
No 2014 Economic Recovery, BUY SILVER & GOLD
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Sunday, July 27, 2014
David Morgan Silver Price Manipulation, Delivery Default & Supply Shortage Risks
Friday, July 25, 2014
Comprehensive SILVER Interview with David Morgan The Silver Guru
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Miners Have No More Fat To Cut
Monday, July 21, 2014
Saturday, July 19, 2014
There Will Be A Rush To Something Real
Thursday, July 17, 2014
We The People
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
David Morgan on Ellis Martin Report, Swiss Metal Group
Tuesday, July 1, 2014
David Morgan Calls Bull on Kitco Puff Piece 'Article'
Saturday, June 28, 2014
China How it Could Affect You and Your Investments
Wednesday, June 25, 2014
Sunday, June 22, 2014
David Morgan on the Gold to Silver Ratio
- Source, Gold Money
Thursday, June 19, 2014
Turd Ferguson with David Morgan of Silver Investor
Monday, June 16, 2014
SILVER vs GOLD
- Source, Gold Money
Friday, June 13, 2014
Precious Metals Market Update With David Morgan
- Source, Silver Investor
Tuesday, May 27, 2014
Gold Standard Viability
Sunday, May 25, 2014
Silver Industrial Demand Continues, China, Japan, Solar & The Metals
- Source, Silver Investor
Friday, May 23, 2014
David Morgan On The Precious Metals Market
Wednesday, May 21, 2014
Some Miners Go to Pot
- Source, Ellis Martin Report
Monday, May 19, 2014
Dissecting Silver LIES
- Source, SGT Report
Saturday, May 10, 2014
Gold $10,000, Silver $1000 Per Ounce
Great interview to help those interested in metals, understand what is going on and where things are headed.
- Source:
Thursday, May 8, 2014
Gold and Silver Bull or Bear?
- Source, The Ellis Martin Report
Tuesday, May 6, 2014
Sunday, May 4, 2014
The Dollar Could Fail
- Source, The Ellis Martin Report.
Friday, May 2, 2014
Are You An Experienced Investor?
In this interview with Ellis Martin, David Morgan of www.TheMorganReport.com discusses the level of sophistication required to play in resource stocks, highlighting a recent uranium pick. What percentage of his followers are equipped to engage?
- Source, The Ellis Martin Report:
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
Some "Miners" Go to Pot, David Morgan on Ellis Martin Report
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
Dollar Value Could Suffer Instant Change
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Silver expert David Morgan is warning of coming financial changes that may be forced on the U.S. during the next G20 meeting. Morgan says, “The impetus here is the U.S. has had too much financial power backed by the military for far too long, and they (G20) are going to implement change one way or the other. The IMF is basically an extension of the United States. Even though it’s called the International Monetary Fund, it is really U.S. based. With what’s been proposed here, the IMF is not going to have the clout that it once did because the G-20 is going to be able to overrule the IMF vote. This is a point in history, monetary history and global economic politics that could set a precedent . . . where it’s official that the U.S. dollar has lost its primary status as world reserve currency.”
Morgan goes on to say, “For years and years, decades, the United States has exported their inflation because it’s a reserve currency, and we have the ability to just print at will. We have pushed the U.S. dollar overseas, into Japan, into China, into Europe, all over the world, and now these dollars could be repatriated. . . . It is a very simple concept in economics, and the supply of dollars is huge. The reason we haven’t seen inflation is those dollars have not been spent. This would portend ‘I need to get out of the dollar and buy tangible assets. . . . Real estate, gold, silver, businesses, any tangible asset. This would be an impetus for these countries that don’t need dollars anymore. If I don’t need these dollars and I don’t settle oil in dollars, it’s not the supreme currency. I need to get out of it.’ If that mindset takes hold widespread, you could see the dollar dive in value against other currencies. There are so many dollars sitting out there doing nothing that could change like a flock of birds. They are all flying in one direction, and then for no reason we could understand, they go the other direction instantly. We could have an instant change where nation states say I need to get out of dollars. If that were to take place, you could see a huge change virtually overnight.”
Morgan thinks the world knows the dollar is in trouble. He contends, “Everyone wants to pretend that everything is OK, but everyone also knows the emperor has no clothes. . . . People might say I’m out. The dollar is toast. I want out at any price. Once that mindset takes place, it could catch fire. It’s unlikely, but you cannot rule it out. . . . 19 out of the G20 are saying we are mad as hell and we are not going to take anymore. You get it together or we are going to get it together for you. . . . Something is going to take place this year that will have such an impact. Perhaps what will be announced will go over the heads of many, but those who are awake will say, ‘that’s it.’ Might not happen initially, but the earthquake will have started, and the U.S. dollar will have lost its status on the international markets.”
On silver, Morgan says, “The rush into gold is basically nation states, but the rush into silver is basically ‘the people,’ and it’s not just ‘the people’ of the U.S., it is ‘the people’ of the world. Silver has been mined in more places in the history of the world than gold ever has. Gold has always been nation state to nation state settlement. . . . What will happen in my view, and this happened in late 1979 and 1980, is that people will catch on quickly. They will see what’s happening in gold and they will say ‘I can’t afford gold at $2,500 an ounce or $3,000,’ and they’ll say ‘I’m going to buy silver.’ Since there are many more people that are middle-class or lower that have a financial survival instinct, they’re going to get whatever they can. The top tiers of all the commodities are gold and silver. Why? Because they’re money, they last, they don’t rot and store forever. There will be a rush into gold and then silver like you have never seen before. This will be a global phenomenon. It wasn’t in 1979, this time it will be. You will either have it or you don’t.” What are Morgan’s price targets? Morgan says, “I am on the record that it will hit $100 an ounce, and that may be conservative. If you look back in history . . . an ounce of silver is basically a day’s wage in very, very good times. The minimum wage in some states is $9 an hour, and that equates to $72 a day. That means an ounce would be $72 at the minimum, just to be fair value today. . . . I don’t think we need to focus on the paper price but the value of silver relative to the market. . . . Two things to consider here: Silver is very undervalued where it is currently, and its value has a lot of upside. You really have to focus on what it purchased relative to what it purchased in the past, and we have not ever gotten to par.”
Silver expert David Morgan is warning of coming financial changes that may be forced on the U.S. during the next G20 meeting. Morgan says, “The impetus here is the U.S. has had too much financial power backed by the military for far too long, and they (G20) are going to implement change one way or the other. The IMF is basically an extension of the United States. Even though it’s called the International Monetary Fund, it is really U.S. based. With what’s been proposed here, the IMF is not going to have the clout that it once did because the G-20 is going to be able to overrule the IMF vote. This is a point in history, monetary history and global economic politics that could set a precedent . . . where it’s official that the U.S. dollar has lost its primary status as world reserve currency.”
Morgan goes on to say, “For years and years, decades, the United States has exported their inflation because it’s a reserve currency, and we have the ability to just print at will. We have pushed the U.S. dollar overseas, into Japan, into China, into Europe, all over the world, and now these dollars could be repatriated. . . . It is a very simple concept in economics, and the supply of dollars is huge. The reason we haven’t seen inflation is those dollars have not been spent. This would portend ‘I need to get out of the dollar and buy tangible assets. . . . Real estate, gold, silver, businesses, any tangible asset. This would be an impetus for these countries that don’t need dollars anymore. If I don’t need these dollars and I don’t settle oil in dollars, it’s not the supreme currency. I need to get out of it.’ If that mindset takes hold widespread, you could see the dollar dive in value against other currencies. There are so many dollars sitting out there doing nothing that could change like a flock of birds. They are all flying in one direction, and then for no reason we could understand, they go the other direction instantly. We could have an instant change where nation states say I need to get out of dollars. If that were to take place, you could see a huge change virtually overnight.”
Morgan thinks the world knows the dollar is in trouble. He contends, “Everyone wants to pretend that everything is OK, but everyone also knows the emperor has no clothes. . . . People might say I’m out. The dollar is toast. I want out at any price. Once that mindset takes place, it could catch fire. It’s unlikely, but you cannot rule it out. . . . 19 out of the G20 are saying we are mad as hell and we are not going to take anymore. You get it together or we are going to get it together for you. . . . Something is going to take place this year that will have such an impact. Perhaps what will be announced will go over the heads of many, but those who are awake will say, ‘that’s it.’ Might not happen initially, but the earthquake will have started, and the U.S. dollar will have lost its status on the international markets.”
On silver, Morgan says, “The rush into gold is basically nation states, but the rush into silver is basically ‘the people,’ and it’s not just ‘the people’ of the U.S., it is ‘the people’ of the world. Silver has been mined in more places in the history of the world than gold ever has. Gold has always been nation state to nation state settlement. . . . What will happen in my view, and this happened in late 1979 and 1980, is that people will catch on quickly. They will see what’s happening in gold and they will say ‘I can’t afford gold at $2,500 an ounce or $3,000,’ and they’ll say ‘I’m going to buy silver.’ Since there are many more people that are middle-class or lower that have a financial survival instinct, they’re going to get whatever they can. The top tiers of all the commodities are gold and silver. Why? Because they’re money, they last, they don’t rot and store forever. There will be a rush into gold and then silver like you have never seen before. This will be a global phenomenon. It wasn’t in 1979, this time it will be. You will either have it or you don’t.” What are Morgan’s price targets? Morgan says, “I am on the record that it will hit $100 an ounce, and that may be conservative. If you look back in history . . . an ounce of silver is basically a day’s wage in very, very good times. The minimum wage in some states is $9 an hour, and that equates to $72 a day. That means an ounce would be $72 at the minimum, just to be fair value today. . . . I don’t think we need to focus on the paper price but the value of silver relative to the market. . . . Two things to consider here: Silver is very undervalued where it is currently, and its value has a lot of upside. You really have to focus on what it purchased relative to what it purchased in the past, and we have not ever gotten to par.”
- Source, USA Watchdog:
Monday, April 14, 2014
Gold And Silver Will Be Global Phenomenon
- Source, USA Watchdog:
Monday, March 31, 2014
Silver Prices and Fundamentals
This short interview will serve as an excellent perspective for understanding how silver supply and demand CAN actually act in these markets. We discussed the US Mint Silver eagle coin program, retail jewelry demand, and the impact of silver supply
Friday, March 28, 2014
Silver to Hit $30 to $34 Range in 2014
- Source, The Morgan Report:
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
David Morgan Interviews Shelly Kraft about Growth Capital Expo 2014
Monday, March 24, 2014
SILVER STACKERS: MEASURE YOUR STASH LIKE A MINER
by David Morgan, The Morgan Report
When attempting to quantify the amount and quality of a possible mineralized deposit on their property, exploration companies and producers generally follow a process which seeks to state, in reasonably accurate and concise terms, just what they have…or might have. Following the Bre-X fiasco, wherein ‘highly inaccurate’ reserves of a supposed deposit in Borneo were publicized and acted upon by a tidal wave of investors, sophisticated and neophyte alike, a new set of reporting rules was enacted.
Canadian National Instrument 43-101, is a rule developed by the Canadian Securities Administrators governing the process of disclosing to the public, scientific and technical information about mining projects. The NI 43-101 report is presented (usually within the context of a company News Release) by a “Qualified Person” — by a (presumably) competent, licensed Geoscientist, who often works for the company in question and is assumed to be skilled in analyzing the mineralization under review.
Reduced to its essence, the continuum of terms, expressed from highest to lowest confidence levels is as follows:
Reserves (Proven/Probable): Proven reserves are those that can be mined using current technology at current prices. Probable reserves may become economic if they ‘pan out’ by being confirmed as expected.
Resources (Measured, Indicated, Inferred): This part of the equation is derived primarily from ‘sampling’ efforts — drill hole programs, trenching, and even ‘grab sampling’. These resources, in all three subcategories might be of economic interest and with the passage of time and more research, turn out to be economic.
Brent Cook, an independent geological consultant, Editor of Exploration Insights, conference presenter, and active private investor, sums it up nicely when he says:
“An investor needs to bear in mind that not all resources or reserves are of the same quality. One company’s two million ounces measured, indicated and inferred resource may ultimately convert to proven and probable reserves whilst the next company’s two million ounce resource may end up as no more than an interesting anomaly to be revived during each successive minerals boom. Likewise, Qualified Persons are not all equally qualified and the quality and veracity of any resource estimate is no better than the integrity of the data supplied and person reporting.”
So how would you ‘measure’ this deposit?
In July, 2012, Pan American Silver made an announcement regarding the proposed future of its Navidad deposit, rumored to hold 700 million ounces of silver, located in Chubut Province, Argentina, as influenced by proposed provincial tax draft legislation. They said in part:
“These increased royalties and the net carried interest are in addition to the 10% export duty payable on the sale of concentrates and the 35% income tax rate, which are payable to the federal government.
“This level of government participation and tax burden is unprecedented relative to any of the other jurisdictions where Pan American operates, including the province of Santa Cruz in Argentina, where the Company’s Manantial Espejo mine is located. The Company’s initial review of the effects of the proposed legislation, when coupled with the current inflationary environment in Argentina, indicates that the increased provincial participation will render the Navidad project uneconomic at any reasonable estimate of long-term silver prices.
“While the proposed law remains subject to revision within the legislative sub-committee and during the debate process in the provincial legislature, in the event that the law is approved as proposed without any meaningful modifications, Pan American will have no other reasonable option but to suspend further investment in Navidad. Without clear potential for positive economic returns, further investment and project expenditures cannot be justified.”
Keep Brent Cook’s comments in mind as we move to use these mining terms in an analogy about the future availability of physical silver supplies and how this might apply to you.
For our purpose today,
Reserves:
Proven – “silver in hand” — in a safety deposit box, a hole in the ground in your back yard — someplace where YOU know that it definitely resides.
Probable — from an “allocated” account, in one of the very few Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) which states that you can — if you so desire — take delivery of your silver or gold. (Trust on your part is a factor here, no?) From an “allocated” bank or trust account which claims to be storing silver in your name, in case you would like at some point to retrieve it.
Should you be without a bit of cynicism on this matter, consider looking up the sad story (as reported in 2010 in The Globe and Mail, entitled “An unkind complicatedness”) of Canadian Amar Patel, 73 years old, suffering from chemotherapy, dealing with breast cancer, and simply trying to retrieve silver from the bank who was ‘holding’ it for her in the form of certificates she had purchased decades before.
After undergoing a series of stressful and humiliating detours, including at one point having the bank responding that it could still deny her request if the transaction was deemed not to be in her “best interest”, she finally was able to take delivery of her silver.
Resources:
Measured: The reported yearly global supply, (new and recycled) totals as collated and reported by an established organization like the Silver Institute.
Indicated: A collation of the expected production totals of primary and secondary silver miners, based in part upon the previous year’s output, AND upon what the companies themselves project that they will be able to produce during the coming year(s).
Inferred: Presumptive silver potential in the earth’s crust as concluded via studies of the U.S. Geophysical Survey, along with such statements from analysts like “Over one billion ounces of silver has been mined from Idaho’s Silver Valley. It is estimated that another billion ounces remain to be found.”
Or, “Silver can be found in the earth’s crust in a ratio of 9:1 (or 8:1), therefore we conclude that another “x” million ounces remain to be located.”
So, silver stackers, if you don’t actually have that silver in hand — or close by — as Dirty Harry would say, “Do you feel lucky today?”
When attempting to quantify the amount and quality of a possible mineralized deposit on their property, exploration companies and producers generally follow a process which seeks to state, in reasonably accurate and concise terms, just what they have…or might have. Following the Bre-X fiasco, wherein ‘highly inaccurate’ reserves of a supposed deposit in Borneo were publicized and acted upon by a tidal wave of investors, sophisticated and neophyte alike, a new set of reporting rules was enacted.
Canadian National Instrument 43-101, is a rule developed by the Canadian Securities Administrators governing the process of disclosing to the public, scientific and technical information about mining projects. The NI 43-101 report is presented (usually within the context of a company News Release) by a “Qualified Person” — by a (presumably) competent, licensed Geoscientist, who often works for the company in question and is assumed to be skilled in analyzing the mineralization under review.
Reduced to its essence, the continuum of terms, expressed from highest to lowest confidence levels is as follows:
Reserves (Proven/Probable): Proven reserves are those that can be mined using current technology at current prices. Probable reserves may become economic if they ‘pan out’ by being confirmed as expected.
Resources (Measured, Indicated, Inferred): This part of the equation is derived primarily from ‘sampling’ efforts — drill hole programs, trenching, and even ‘grab sampling’. These resources, in all three subcategories might be of economic interest and with the passage of time and more research, turn out to be economic.
Brent Cook, an independent geological consultant, Editor of Exploration Insights, conference presenter, and active private investor, sums it up nicely when he says:
“An investor needs to bear in mind that not all resources or reserves are of the same quality. One company’s two million ounces measured, indicated and inferred resource may ultimately convert to proven and probable reserves whilst the next company’s two million ounce resource may end up as no more than an interesting anomaly to be revived during each successive minerals boom. Likewise, Qualified Persons are not all equally qualified and the quality and veracity of any resource estimate is no better than the integrity of the data supplied and person reporting.”
So how would you ‘measure’ this deposit?
In July, 2012, Pan American Silver made an announcement regarding the proposed future of its Navidad deposit, rumored to hold 700 million ounces of silver, located in Chubut Province, Argentina, as influenced by proposed provincial tax draft legislation. They said in part:
“These increased royalties and the net carried interest are in addition to the 10% export duty payable on the sale of concentrates and the 35% income tax rate, which are payable to the federal government.
“This level of government participation and tax burden is unprecedented relative to any of the other jurisdictions where Pan American operates, including the province of Santa Cruz in Argentina, where the Company’s Manantial Espejo mine is located. The Company’s initial review of the effects of the proposed legislation, when coupled with the current inflationary environment in Argentina, indicates that the increased provincial participation will render the Navidad project uneconomic at any reasonable estimate of long-term silver prices.
“While the proposed law remains subject to revision within the legislative sub-committee and during the debate process in the provincial legislature, in the event that the law is approved as proposed without any meaningful modifications, Pan American will have no other reasonable option but to suspend further investment in Navidad. Without clear potential for positive economic returns, further investment and project expenditures cannot be justified.”
Keep Brent Cook’s comments in mind as we move to use these mining terms in an analogy about the future availability of physical silver supplies and how this might apply to you.
For our purpose today,
Reserves:
Proven – “silver in hand” — in a safety deposit box, a hole in the ground in your back yard — someplace where YOU know that it definitely resides.
Probable — from an “allocated” account, in one of the very few Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) which states that you can — if you so desire — take delivery of your silver or gold. (Trust on your part is a factor here, no?) From an “allocated” bank or trust account which claims to be storing silver in your name, in case you would like at some point to retrieve it.
Should you be without a bit of cynicism on this matter, consider looking up the sad story (as reported in 2010 in The Globe and Mail, entitled “An unkind complicatedness”) of Canadian Amar Patel, 73 years old, suffering from chemotherapy, dealing with breast cancer, and simply trying to retrieve silver from the bank who was ‘holding’ it for her in the form of certificates she had purchased decades before.
After undergoing a series of stressful and humiliating detours, including at one point having the bank responding that it could still deny her request if the transaction was deemed not to be in her “best interest”, she finally was able to take delivery of her silver.
Resources:
Measured: The reported yearly global supply, (new and recycled) totals as collated and reported by an established organization like the Silver Institute.
Indicated: A collation of the expected production totals of primary and secondary silver miners, based in part upon the previous year’s output, AND upon what the companies themselves project that they will be able to produce during the coming year(s).
Inferred: Presumptive silver potential in the earth’s crust as concluded via studies of the U.S. Geophysical Survey, along with such statements from analysts like “Over one billion ounces of silver has been mined from Idaho’s Silver Valley. It is estimated that another billion ounces remain to be found.”
Or, “Silver can be found in the earth’s crust in a ratio of 9:1 (or 8:1), therefore we conclude that another “x” million ounces remain to be located.”
So, silver stackers, if you don’t actually have that silver in hand — or close by — as Dirty Harry would say, “Do you feel lucky today?”
- Source, David Morgan of The Morgan Report:
Saturday, March 22, 2014
Silver Outflows From The SLV ETF
Thursday, March 20, 2014
Argentina Today - the U.S. Tomorrow: Got gold and silver?
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
How Does One Buy Canadian Mining Stocks
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Silver in 2014, Still a Bull Market
- Source, Future Money Trends:
Friday, March 14, 2014
Gold And Silver Correction Appears To Be Over
- Source, Financial Survival Network:
Thursday, March 6, 2014
The Currency Crisis Continues
Tuesday, March 4, 2014
The United States is Living a Lie
- Source, Cambridge House:
Sunday, March 2, 2014
David Morgan's Precious Metals Outlook for 2014
Usually he reserves his keynote speeches for paid members only. However, after some consideration, he is making this one available to everyone.
- Source, Silverinvestor.com
Friday, February 28, 2014
Ten Reasons to Own Gold
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
This Debt Bomb Will Explode
Friday, February 21, 2014
The Gold and Silver Bull Market is NOT Over Yet
The bull market is not over and it's normal in these secular bull markets to shake off some bulls and reach the status that we are currently at where the sentiment is very low. There is a lot of distrust and a lot of people are questioning whether they should be in the sector. Those are signs that the bottom is in. Now is the time, for those not in the sector, to get in. For those already in, either hold what they have, add to their position or ride it out. A couple of years from now we're going to see much higher prices in the precious metals. Three or four years out, it may be overvalued in real terms, but that remains to be determined.
- Source, The AU Report:
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Investors Follow a Herd Mentality
I was not that good in the markets early on because I was so logic based. You do your analysis and you determine what the true value of something is. be it a stock or a company I should say, and it’s partly true. I mean that’s part of analysis.
But, what’s greater is to learn the psychology. People really don’t like to be lone wolves. There aren’t a lot of us that are. There aren’t that many mavericks in the population.
So, people to be truly independent thinkers and really not care what others think of them and go out is unusual. Most people are, again, herd mentality. So, if John, Joe, my brother in law, and sister are doing it then I can join in and do it. In other words, it’s like a herd or pack mentality.
That’s why you get these moves as everyone’s jumping in. Because when the guy at the water cooler says yeah I just bought my gold, my broker this and that, yeah I got a good discount, and on and on. They’re babbling and babbling. So be it. I’m free market. Do what you want to do.
But, that kind of catches fire. John bought gold. John’s a smart guy. He’s driving this car. Hey, I’m going to buy gold, too. It kind of accelerates. Those things take acceleration phases. That’s what I call them.
Like right now, you haven’t asked me, but tell everybody for the record, we’re in a distribution phase of the general stock market. Not that it won’t go higher. It probably will. But, the professionals are distributing what they picked up much earlier when no one wanted it, their stocks. They’re distributing them to the retail investor, the unwary public. Because the public is being told by the mainstream media and others that the stock market’s the place to be, because all this funny money primarily has gone into that arena.
But, the pros are selling their stuff. Like I said earlier, selling the strength. Strength is still in the stock market. You’ve got to have somebody to sell it to. You want the market to continue to go up, so you distribute into somebody that’s willing to buy at these high prices. Letting it go somewhat higher, and then when the bottom falls out, caves in, you aren’t holding the bag. The public is.
But, what’s greater is to learn the psychology. People really don’t like to be lone wolves. There aren’t a lot of us that are. There aren’t that many mavericks in the population.
So, people to be truly independent thinkers and really not care what others think of them and go out is unusual. Most people are, again, herd mentality. So, if John, Joe, my brother in law, and sister are doing it then I can join in and do it. In other words, it’s like a herd or pack mentality.
That’s why you get these moves as everyone’s jumping in. Because when the guy at the water cooler says yeah I just bought my gold, my broker this and that, yeah I got a good discount, and on and on. They’re babbling and babbling. So be it. I’m free market. Do what you want to do.
But, that kind of catches fire. John bought gold. John’s a smart guy. He’s driving this car. Hey, I’m going to buy gold, too. It kind of accelerates. Those things take acceleration phases. That’s what I call them.
Like right now, you haven’t asked me, but tell everybody for the record, we’re in a distribution phase of the general stock market. Not that it won’t go higher. It probably will. But, the professionals are distributing what they picked up much earlier when no one wanted it, their stocks. They’re distributing them to the retail investor, the unwary public. Because the public is being told by the mainstream media and others that the stock market’s the place to be, because all this funny money primarily has gone into that arena.
But, the pros are selling their stuff. Like I said earlier, selling the strength. Strength is still in the stock market. You’ve got to have somebody to sell it to. You want the market to continue to go up, so you distribute into somebody that’s willing to buy at these high prices. Letting it go somewhat higher, and then when the bottom falls out, caves in, you aren’t holding the bag. The public is.
- Source, David Morgan via Sprott Money:
Monday, February 17, 2014
The Long Term Picture for Silver
I don’t like to give a paper price although I can. I’m on record back in the early 2000′s saying silver would make it to $100 an ounce, and I think that’s very realistic.
Again, I think it’s the value. I’m along the lines of Mike Maloney and others that you don’t want to focus too much on the paper price, although that’s what everyone does and rightfully so. Because if you sell metals you’re only going to get it for currency. You’re going to take that currency, and it’s either going to be a greater amount or a lesser amount than the currency you put into the investment.
You really want to look at the value, what does an ounce of silver buy historically, and what does it buy today. That is the gauge you should use to determine whether or not it’s fair valued, undervalued, or overvalued.
If you look at gold, the old adage is, of course, a fine men’s suit. You want to look at an ounce of gold, does it still do that? Or, if it buys ten suits then you might consider the fact that it’s overvalued on a historical basis.
That’s the way I’ll be looking at it more than the paper price.
I think it’s going far higher. I think you’re going to see gold overvalued and silver overvalued, and I think in an extreme way. As I just outlined, I think you’ll see where an ounce of gold doesn’t buy one fine man’s suit, it buys 10 or 50 or some extreme metric. I really think that’s where we’re going.
I think we’ll get there before ten years. I think ten years from now… I’m an optimist really. I might not sound it after I’ve been painted with the doomer broad brush, and in some cases that’d be valid. But, I’m a realist is what I am. I’m in the reality of what’s going on in the financial system. And, things are getting worse, not better, in my very studied opinion.
Regardless, I think ten years from now we could definitely be on the upswing. There are a lot of things out there, like the nanotech world, what’s going on in the energy frontier as far as being able to perhaps upgrade the system as a whole and use energy sources that are worthwhile.
I’m not talking about solar and wind. I’m not against them, but they’re really not very efficient. But other areas that might deem higher energy flex density where people have more energy available on a per capita basis, the better that is the higher living standard you have. That’s pretty easily proven.
Ten years out I’m pretty optimistic. But, I think getting to ten years out is going to be very trying over the next few. I’m looking for round numbers, if you want them.
I think $5,000 an ounce gold is probably realistic. Depending on your view of silver, if you’re super optimistic like me and you think it could follow a ten to one ratio you could use that number. Or, you think the current 50 to 1 or 60 to 1 ratio is more appropriate you could use that number.
I think we’re probably going to get to a minimum of the classic monetary ratio of 16 to 1 and as high as 10 to 1. I’ll be consistent here. I wrote about that many years ago. So, if you saw $5,000 an ounce gold then that would imply one tenth would be $500 silver.
But, let’s get past $50 again. I want to be very practical. People ask me all the time what’s the ultimate price. I say let’s be practical. Let’s see it above $26. Let’s see how it trades. Let’s get it back above $30 and see how much interest are in the metals.
I’ll go on the record as saying this. I know markets fairly well. You’re not going to see too much buying by the nonsophisticated money at these levels, unfortunately. But, what you will see once you see silver and gold work their ways higher, once you get the gold above, I don’t know, pick a level, $1,500; $1,600; $1,700, there’ll be a lot more interest in it.
And there’ll be a lot of money spent on the metals once they break to new highs. You’ll see a lot of money come into gold above the $1,900 level, and you’ll see a lot of money come into silver above the $48 level.
Unfortunately, that’s really… It’s not too late, because I think they’re going far higher than that. It’s not nearly as advantageous as buying today. But, the interest in the market today is at a low, and that’s how lows are made.
Again, I think it’s the value. I’m along the lines of Mike Maloney and others that you don’t want to focus too much on the paper price, although that’s what everyone does and rightfully so. Because if you sell metals you’re only going to get it for currency. You’re going to take that currency, and it’s either going to be a greater amount or a lesser amount than the currency you put into the investment.
You really want to look at the value, what does an ounce of silver buy historically, and what does it buy today. That is the gauge you should use to determine whether or not it’s fair valued, undervalued, or overvalued.
If you look at gold, the old adage is, of course, a fine men’s suit. You want to look at an ounce of gold, does it still do that? Or, if it buys ten suits then you might consider the fact that it’s overvalued on a historical basis.
That’s the way I’ll be looking at it more than the paper price.
I think it’s going far higher. I think you’re going to see gold overvalued and silver overvalued, and I think in an extreme way. As I just outlined, I think you’ll see where an ounce of gold doesn’t buy one fine man’s suit, it buys 10 or 50 or some extreme metric. I really think that’s where we’re going.
I think we’ll get there before ten years. I think ten years from now… I’m an optimist really. I might not sound it after I’ve been painted with the doomer broad brush, and in some cases that’d be valid. But, I’m a realist is what I am. I’m in the reality of what’s going on in the financial system. And, things are getting worse, not better, in my very studied opinion.
Regardless, I think ten years from now we could definitely be on the upswing. There are a lot of things out there, like the nanotech world, what’s going on in the energy frontier as far as being able to perhaps upgrade the system as a whole and use energy sources that are worthwhile.
I’m not talking about solar and wind. I’m not against them, but they’re really not very efficient. But other areas that might deem higher energy flex density where people have more energy available on a per capita basis, the better that is the higher living standard you have. That’s pretty easily proven.
Ten years out I’m pretty optimistic. But, I think getting to ten years out is going to be very trying over the next few. I’m looking for round numbers, if you want them.
I think $5,000 an ounce gold is probably realistic. Depending on your view of silver, if you’re super optimistic like me and you think it could follow a ten to one ratio you could use that number. Or, you think the current 50 to 1 or 60 to 1 ratio is more appropriate you could use that number.
I think we’re probably going to get to a minimum of the classic monetary ratio of 16 to 1 and as high as 10 to 1. I’ll be consistent here. I wrote about that many years ago. So, if you saw $5,000 an ounce gold then that would imply one tenth would be $500 silver.
But, let’s get past $50 again. I want to be very practical. People ask me all the time what’s the ultimate price. I say let’s be practical. Let’s see it above $26. Let’s see how it trades. Let’s get it back above $30 and see how much interest are in the metals.
I’ll go on the record as saying this. I know markets fairly well. You’re not going to see too much buying by the nonsophisticated money at these levels, unfortunately. But, what you will see once you see silver and gold work their ways higher, once you get the gold above, I don’t know, pick a level, $1,500; $1,600; $1,700, there’ll be a lot more interest in it.
And there’ll be a lot of money spent on the metals once they break to new highs. You’ll see a lot of money come into gold above the $1,900 level, and you’ll see a lot of money come into silver above the $48 level.
Unfortunately, that’s really… It’s not too late, because I think they’re going far higher than that. It’s not nearly as advantageous as buying today. But, the interest in the market today is at a low, and that’s how lows are made.
- Source, David Morgan via Sprott Money:
Saturday, February 15, 2014
Gold Plays an Extremely Important Role in Monetary History
If you go back about a decade and you look at the BIS, the Bank of International Settlements, that’s the bankers’ bank. They accounted in one thing and one thing only, and that was gold. That’s the only thing they accounted for, gold.
Now, if you’re talking about the central bankers’ bank, you’re talking about basically the monetary powerhouse of the entire globe. The only thing that they care about is how much gold you have in a nation state. I would certainly say that that somewhat carries merit. The problem is that we really don’t know who owns what because of all these swaps, interconnections, hypothecations, and rehypothecations.
I’m going to go off on a tangent here, but it’s on point somewhat. I’ve always thought what would be the event. No one knows. But, if it ever came to light that there is no real gold in Fort Knox, and of course there’s a lot of conjecture about that.
If somehow there was a Senate investigation or whatever, pick your idea, and it came to light internationally that “oh no! we opened up the curtain and we saw the wizard, and the wizard is naked. There’s no gold at Fort Knox. The US has no gold reserve at all.”
If that were ever to come to light I would think that the US dollar could take a huge plunge. Because the perception, maybe not the reality, maybe the reality, is that the US still has a large gold hold, around 265,000,000 ounces of fine gold.
I doubt it, but again, the market’s perception, I think, is that yeah. So, you could look at different currencies through history and basically, like it or not, gold bug or not, gold plays an extremely important part in monetary history.
Now, if you’re talking about the central bankers’ bank, you’re talking about basically the monetary powerhouse of the entire globe. The only thing that they care about is how much gold you have in a nation state. I would certainly say that that somewhat carries merit. The problem is that we really don’t know who owns what because of all these swaps, interconnections, hypothecations, and rehypothecations.
I’m going to go off on a tangent here, but it’s on point somewhat. I’ve always thought what would be the event. No one knows. But, if it ever came to light that there is no real gold in Fort Knox, and of course there’s a lot of conjecture about that.
If somehow there was a Senate investigation or whatever, pick your idea, and it came to light internationally that “oh no! we opened up the curtain and we saw the wizard, and the wizard is naked. There’s no gold at Fort Knox. The US has no gold reserve at all.”
If that were ever to come to light I would think that the US dollar could take a huge plunge. Because the perception, maybe not the reality, maybe the reality, is that the US still has a large gold hold, around 265,000,000 ounces of fine gold.
I doubt it, but again, the market’s perception, I think, is that yeah. So, you could look at different currencies through history and basically, like it or not, gold bug or not, gold plays an extremely important part in monetary history.
- Source, David Morgan via Sprott Money:
Thursday, February 13, 2014
I Suggest Very Few Junior Miners
That's a good question, but I'm probably not the best to ask because we focus mostly on top-tier and mid-tier companies, companies that are producers or near producers. We do study a great deal of the junior exploration sector, but suggest very few. If I would venture a guess, of the micro-cap companies—$0.5–3 million—probably half will survive, maybe fewer than that.
It has been very difficult in the precious metals sector over the last couple of years. Even some of the best companies—I am thinking of one recently that has one of the richest gold mines in the world—can be mismanaged. That is why with some of these companies I tell people to only risk money they can lose because the payoff can be great, but they can lose it all, too. And some of my readers thank me for it later. That happened just this morning.
It has been very difficult in the precious metals sector over the last couple of years. Even some of the best companies—I am thinking of one recently that has one of the richest gold mines in the world—can be mismanaged. That is why with some of these companies I tell people to only risk money they can lose because the payoff can be great, but they can lose it all, too. And some of my readers thank me for it later. That happened just this morning.
- Source, The AU Report:
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
More People Will Wake up to the Need of Precious Metals
There is no change fundamentally in why investors would buy gold in 2001 compared to why they would buy gold in 2013 or 2014. The fundamental fact is that there isn't a nation state on earth that has a handle on the debt problem. Because of that, we're going to see more people wake up to the need for precious metals, because precious metals are true money outside the framework of the current system.
The correction we had in silver and gold isn't that abnormal in a major bull market. I've been through one bull market already in my lifetime. I watched gold go from the fixed price of $42.22/oz up to $200/oz, then to sell off to around the $100/oz level. It later advanced all the way back to the peak of $850/oz in January 1980. I have seen the damage a big shakeout in a major bull market can have. That experience makes me a little bit more hardened to weather the storm we just experienced.
However, I think that the worst is over. I think silver has bottomed. Gold probably has as well. This year, 2014, will be a rebuilding year. Depending on what happens in the global economic system, it's possible that we could even see a very good year for the metals, but I don't anticipate that. I'm anticipating a rebuild year where silver climbs back over $30/oz and gold travels up well over $1,600/oz, probably to the $1,700/oz level or higher depending on how the economy unfolds.
The correction we had in silver and gold isn't that abnormal in a major bull market. I've been through one bull market already in my lifetime. I watched gold go from the fixed price of $42.22/oz up to $200/oz, then to sell off to around the $100/oz level. It later advanced all the way back to the peak of $850/oz in January 1980. I have seen the damage a big shakeout in a major bull market can have. That experience makes me a little bit more hardened to weather the storm we just experienced.
However, I think that the worst is over. I think silver has bottomed. Gold probably has as well. This year, 2014, will be a rebuilding year. Depending on what happens in the global economic system, it's possible that we could even see a very good year for the metals, but I don't anticipate that. I'm anticipating a rebuild year where silver climbs back over $30/oz and gold travels up well over $1,600/oz, probably to the $1,700/oz level or higher depending on how the economy unfolds.
- Source, The AU Report:
Sunday, February 9, 2014
The Resource Wars Have Begun
The resource wars have already started. Look at Mexico. It has a resource that it covets very much, and that's energy. That is why the government levied a new tax designed primarily as energy, but subsequently adds a 7.5% royalty on mining profits. Is it a war? Not per se, but it is detrimental to companies that operate in Mexico today and in the future. I think we will see even more of this kind of thing in 2014.
- Source, The AU Report:
Friday, February 7, 2014
Physical Silver vs. Paper Silver
- Source, Gold Money:
Wednesday, February 5, 2014
How and Where to Store Gold and Silver
- Source, Gold Money:
Monday, February 3, 2014
James Turk and David Morgan Talk Silver and the CFTC
Saturday, February 1, 2014
Will China Replace the US as the Reserve Currency of the World?
I’ve said the big push would be from west to east. I did talk about the gold backed Yuan, and I did that very early. I was one of the earliest writers to write about that. I don’t believe, this is again my opinion, that actually China wants the responsibility of the reserve currency of the world. That’s my opinion. I think that they’re very happy to accumulate a great deal of gold, maybe tie the Yuan to gold. But, I’m not certain that they, again, want the responsibility. This is again my take.
They see the problem with being the reserve currency the United States is currently under. So, I think they are more apt to say look, we want to use our currency as a sovereign nation to trade with other nations and circumvent the dollar. Of course, they’ve done that very eloquently over the last few years and continue to do so.
They keep distancing themselves from the US dollar. So, I think that it could be where currencies are as they are now, floating against each other. The Yuan continues to gain strength because they’ve cut the tie to the dollar. There isn’t really a reserve.
The other part of the question is do I think possibly that we’d be in another system like a hard back – gold or silver backed, currency or some tie to it. The answer to that is yes. I doubt silver will be tied to the monetary system, although it really would be very, very good if it were. Because the best system, at least historically, is a bimetallic system where you have gold and silver without a fixed ratio. But, that’s topic for another time.
I think you’ll see some kind of gold cover clause with the new currency. There’s probably still a push by the Anglo-American axis to have a one world currency, but the contra to that is basically the BRICS countries. Again, as I said, I think the Yuan could be a stand alone currency as an alternative but not necessarily a reserve currency.
Really, the reserve currency of the world that’s worked the best is gold as the reserve. It’s basically similar to the Bretton Woods system. The reason the dollar was as good as gold and sound as a dollar, those archaic sayings, was that you could exchange US dollars for gold at one time up until August 15, 1971.
But, the US did what it’s still doing which is printing more pieces of paper versus the amount of gold they held. Of course, now it’s exempt because of closing the gold window. Nonetheless, too much of anything decreases its value, and certainly there are enough US dollars in the system to decrease the value.
We’re not seeing that take place because the amount that’s been printed under the QE one, two, and three is sitting on banks’ balance sheets. It’s not going out into the general populace to cause any price inflation.
They see the problem with being the reserve currency the United States is currently under. So, I think they are more apt to say look, we want to use our currency as a sovereign nation to trade with other nations and circumvent the dollar. Of course, they’ve done that very eloquently over the last few years and continue to do so.
They keep distancing themselves from the US dollar. So, I think that it could be where currencies are as they are now, floating against each other. The Yuan continues to gain strength because they’ve cut the tie to the dollar. There isn’t really a reserve.
The other part of the question is do I think possibly that we’d be in another system like a hard back – gold or silver backed, currency or some tie to it. The answer to that is yes. I doubt silver will be tied to the monetary system, although it really would be very, very good if it were. Because the best system, at least historically, is a bimetallic system where you have gold and silver without a fixed ratio. But, that’s topic for another time.
I think you’ll see some kind of gold cover clause with the new currency. There’s probably still a push by the Anglo-American axis to have a one world currency, but the contra to that is basically the BRICS countries. Again, as I said, I think the Yuan could be a stand alone currency as an alternative but not necessarily a reserve currency.
Really, the reserve currency of the world that’s worked the best is gold as the reserve. It’s basically similar to the Bretton Woods system. The reason the dollar was as good as gold and sound as a dollar, those archaic sayings, was that you could exchange US dollars for gold at one time up until August 15, 1971.
But, the US did what it’s still doing which is printing more pieces of paper versus the amount of gold they held. Of course, now it’s exempt because of closing the gold window. Nonetheless, too much of anything decreases its value, and certainly there are enough US dollars in the system to decrease the value.
We’re not seeing that take place because the amount that’s been printed under the QE one, two, and three is sitting on banks’ balance sheets. It’s not going out into the general populace to cause any price inflation.
- Source, David Morgan via Sprott Money:
Thursday, January 30, 2014
The Fundamentals for Gold and Silver Have NEVER Been Better
The reality is, look, silver is volatile. Silver is much more volatile than gold. And, I think the correct approach to any market is to understand that market. I feel I have a pretty good feel for the silver market, and I’m sure several would agree and probably some that would disagree.
Regardless, I said look, the best way to do well in this market is, and this is from my personal take, to know ahead of time what’s going to take place and never miss a trade. That’s impossible. That’s not realistic. Is to look at when it’s overvalued and that type of thing to sell a portion of it and hedge your bets kind of thing.
So, that’s the approach that I’ve taken all the way through this market. The only regret I might say is when I did get out at the top in the end of April 2011 I didn’t keep rolling that over again and again and again as I probably could have. But, what’s done is done. Reality is fundamentally it’s actually never been better to get into the gold and silver market as it is right now.
Regardless, I said look, the best way to do well in this market is, and this is from my personal take, to know ahead of time what’s going to take place and never miss a trade. That’s impossible. That’s not realistic. Is to look at when it’s overvalued and that type of thing to sell a portion of it and hedge your bets kind of thing.
So, that’s the approach that I’ve taken all the way through this market. The only regret I might say is when I did get out at the top in the end of April 2011 I didn’t keep rolling that over again and again and again as I probably could have. But, what’s done is done. Reality is fundamentally it’s actually never been better to get into the gold and silver market as it is right now.
- Source, Sprott Money:
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
You Can't Eat Your iPad
Food doesn't become unpopular. It’s a requirement. Clothing can be superficial, obviously, but the root basics are that you need food, shelter, water, et cetera. So, that means generally the commodities sector is a place where we need to have things.
Whereas the greater iPhone or greater iPad… I own them both. I don’t want to be a hypocrite here. But, the stuff that we don’t necessarily need to survive is things that are going to have a problem. I want to be a little more succinct on that. I think the idea was really that anything that’s based on leveraging borrowed money is something to be very leery of. Housing, I think, is a perfect example.
Basically my big push was, in the early 2000′s, to not only get into hard assets and the commodities sector generally speaking and out of things that were debt based. So, if you had mortgages that were debt based of course this was counterintuitive. Because almost everyone said David if you’re saying there’s going to be money printed inflation, inflation will bail me out.
Yes, that was, was in the past, true during the inflationary 1970′s and up to 1980′s, and I lived through it. But, at that time we didn’t have China as a competitor. We didn’t have people that were willing to work for $2 per day. As we’ve seen, the labor force has basically been decimated in North America and moved into the east.
That means that this what we used to call incorrectly cost push inflation that gave everybody a cost of living adjustment and allowed them to let inflation bail them out, borrow money, and invest it, and then inflation would make you smart, that was gone. People had a really tough time getting that message out. I probably didn’t do as good a job as I would’ve liked to.
This is not about being right and wrong. This is about thinking about the reality of the world that we’re living in. My take was to go ahead and just be like a cash only investor. Not that I don’t use leverage and derivatives, because I do. I want to be clear. But, I do it in a rather conservative way, and I always have stops on.
In other words, I protect myself. And, a lot of times at this point it’s, like, covered. In other words, I can sell or rent my silver, or gold, or whatever for a certain length of time, and if I’m wrong it’s already covered because I own the physical reality of that.
So, it’s not like I’m playing with something that doesn’t exist. I’m “playing” with a portion of something that does exist. A lot of times in this market of being down for the last few years, it’s been a prudent thing to do actually, because unfortunately this market still looks like it’s struggling to find an exact bottom.
Whereas the greater iPhone or greater iPad… I own them both. I don’t want to be a hypocrite here. But, the stuff that we don’t necessarily need to survive is things that are going to have a problem. I want to be a little more succinct on that. I think the idea was really that anything that’s based on leveraging borrowed money is something to be very leery of. Housing, I think, is a perfect example.
Basically my big push was, in the early 2000′s, to not only get into hard assets and the commodities sector generally speaking and out of things that were debt based. So, if you had mortgages that were debt based of course this was counterintuitive. Because almost everyone said David if you’re saying there’s going to be money printed inflation, inflation will bail me out.
Yes, that was, was in the past, true during the inflationary 1970′s and up to 1980′s, and I lived through it. But, at that time we didn’t have China as a competitor. We didn’t have people that were willing to work for $2 per day. As we’ve seen, the labor force has basically been decimated in North America and moved into the east.
That means that this what we used to call incorrectly cost push inflation that gave everybody a cost of living adjustment and allowed them to let inflation bail them out, borrow money, and invest it, and then inflation would make you smart, that was gone. People had a really tough time getting that message out. I probably didn’t do as good a job as I would’ve liked to.
This is not about being right and wrong. This is about thinking about the reality of the world that we’re living in. My take was to go ahead and just be like a cash only investor. Not that I don’t use leverage and derivatives, because I do. I want to be clear. But, I do it in a rather conservative way, and I always have stops on.
In other words, I protect myself. And, a lot of times at this point it’s, like, covered. In other words, I can sell or rent my silver, or gold, or whatever for a certain length of time, and if I’m wrong it’s already covered because I own the physical reality of that.
So, it’s not like I’m playing with something that doesn’t exist. I’m “playing” with a portion of something that does exist. A lot of times in this market of being down for the last few years, it’s been a prudent thing to do actually, because unfortunately this market still looks like it’s struggling to find an exact bottom.
- Source, Sprott Money:
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